Fantasy football analysis draft: Round 5

by KFFL Staff on August 22, 2011 @ 01:42:25 PDT's Fantasy Football Analysis Draft (FAD) brings you behind the scenes on all 16 rounds of an actual fantasy football league draft. Each of our experts participating give you their analysis on why they took the player they did. This is not a mock fantasy football draft; this league will be played out during the course of the 2011 fantasy football season ... each participant is drafting to win!

1) Knowshon Moreno, running back, Denver Broncos
Team: Ryan Dodson | Team Roster | League Scoring

Reason and statistical expectations: I felt this value pick was the correct move. I can gamble on receivers later, but it's now or never for a third running back. Vintage KFFL draft strategy! Moreno would have eclipsed his rookie totals last season if he didn't miss three games due to injury. With new head coach John Fox and his run-first mentality in tow, and last year's pass-happy offense likely a thing of the past, Moreno has a chance to be a breakout performer. The addition of RB Willis McGahee and his goal-line presence makes me a bit nervous, but Moreno should contribute enough in both the running and passing game to make this pick worthwhile. Moreno ran for 779 yards and five scores and caught 37 balls for 372 yards and three scores last season. If he can rush for near the 1,000-yard plateau and duplicate those receiving numbers, I'll be a happy camper. Others considered: Dallas Cowboys RB Felix Jones, Carolina Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart

2) Ryan Grant, running back, Green Bay Packers
Team: Tim Piotrowski | Team Roster | League Scoring

Reason and statistical expectations: Grant is a risky choice at this point because he is coming off injury and faces the possibility of losing touches to running back James Starks but has shown he can be productive when healthy. Grant has been working with the starters during training camp and should be the one to get the first chance as the starter. I would he happy with around 1,000 and eight touchdowns on the ground and add 25-30 receptions and a touchdown or two as a receiver.

3) Mario Manningham, wide receiver, New York Giants
Team: Jack Douglas | Team Roster | League Scoring

Reason and statistical expectations: Manningham is just now rounding into his prime as an NFL receiver. Manningham became a starter for the Giants once Steve E. Smith was lost for the season. In fact, he reeled in 35 balls for 559 yards and six receiving touchdowns in the final eight games. If he can stay healthy, he should settle in for 60-70 receptions for about 1,000 receiving yards and probably around 8-10 touchdowns. In the second half of 2010, he was one of the top wide receivers in the league. The loss of Smith to the Eagles actually should increase Manningham's fantasy value. I am willing to assume the risk because his potential is pretty good and he has a fairly dependable track record. He makes an ideal No. 3 wide receiver in a 12-team fantasy league.

Anquan Boldin, WR, Baltimore Ravens

4) Anquan Boldin, wide receiver, Baltimore Ravens
Team: Keith Hernandez | Team Roster | League Scoring

Reason and statistical expectations: I feel like this is a steal on Boldin. Most fantasy footballers would be happy to have him as a No. 2 in a PPR format this year, so I'm definitely feeling comfortable with my WR depth - I felt like I needed it with Colston's (my last pick) injuries being a concern. Everyone seems down on Boldin after he was lackluster in his first year in Baltimore (64-837-7). I'm not. He will be Joe Flacco's No. 1 target now that Derrick Mason and Todd Heap are gone, and although he's not the fastest wideout as the go-to guy, he moves the chains and fits Cam Cameron's system very well. Lee Evans could steal some catches, but I don't see any reason why Boldin can't put up 80-90 grabs and over 1,000 yards.

5) Percy Harvin, wide receiver, Minnesota Vikings
Team: Brian Polking | Team Roster | League Scoring

Reason and statistical expectations: Harvin missed two games last season but still finished with 71 catches for 868 yards. He aparently has his migraine issues under control, and a full season will only improve his numbers. Sidney Rice's departure means Harvin is now the No. 1 option in the Vikings' passing game, and while Donovan McNabb might not be a franchise QB anymore, ask Santana Moss (career-high 93 catches) if McNabb knows how to utilize a speedy slot receiver. I think an 80-plus catch season and 1,000 yards is reasonable.

6) Mark Ingram, running back, New Orleans Saints
Team: Nicholas Minnix | Team Roster | League Scoring

Reason and statistical expectations: Rookies don't make for safe picks. He has a bum knee. The Saints spread it around. He'll split time with Pierre Thomas. He's not that fast. Blah blah blah. The Saints love this kid, or they wouldn't have traded up to get him. He impressed them all offseason. Thomas will catch passes, Ingram will score TDs. They could both be solid picks, but Thomas isn't durable, and Ingram should be. A thousand total yards and close to double-digit TDs are good possibilities and no less likely for Ingram than other backs taken around here.

7) Matt Schaub, quarterback, Houston Texans
Team: Cory J. Bonini | Team Roster | League Scoring

Reason and statistical expectations: Schaub represents the last of the safe, high-ceiling No. 1 quarterbacks. The position went earlier than I expected, to a degree, yet Schaub is a fair value at this point. I thought about going with another receiver here, but the drop-off at QB was too great to ignore. With a stud receiver, a strong running game and a quality offensive line, this offense should rock 'n' roll again in 2011. Schaub should be a near lock for 4,000-plus passing yards and at least 26 touchdowns.

8) Chad Ochocinco, wide receiver, New England Patriots
Team: Jared Byrd | Team Roster | League Scoring

Reason and statistical expectations: After selecting players at other positions in each of the first four rounds, it was time for me to choose the best available receiver. The 33-year-old Ochocinco only had 67 receptions for 831 yards last season, but a change of scenery and winning atmosphere could do wonders for his career. I'd be happy with 80 catches, 1,000 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. 

9) Felix Jones, running back, Dallas Cowboys
Team: Eric McClung | Team Roster | League Scoring

Reason and statistical expectations: Last year, Jones totaled 1,250 yards from scrimmage while ranking just 25th in rushing attempts from splitting time with the departing Marion Barber. Now the Cowboys enter the season with Jones as their primary back for the first time after head coach Jason Garrett increased the speedster’s involvement in the second half of 2010. While Tashard Choice and rookie DeMarco Murray figure to be in the mix, Felix is the cat's meow when the 'Boys are looking for a big play from the backfield as a rusher or receiver. I'm looking for Jones to tally more than 1,600 total yards of offense in a breakthrough campaign.

10) Cedric Benson, running back, Cincinnati Bengals
Team: Dan Dobish | Team Roster | League Scoring

Reason and statistical expectations: With the Benson selection, I simply needed a guy who should be a starter with little fight for carries. Benson is on a poor team with what looks to be poor QB play, so perhaps they'll lean on him more heavily and he'll produce 1,000 yards and at least eight TDs. Of course, teams never run when they're behind by a ton.

11) Austin Collie, wide receiver, Indianapolis Colts
Team: Tim Heaney | Team Roster | League Scoring

Reason and statistical expectations: Jeremy Maclin caught my eye, as well, but Collie - concussion, knee and all - is one of my big boom-or-bust selections. With another pick coming three away, I figured taking the chance here, for my WR3, was well worth it. Collie was arguably the best fantasy receiving option in the first six weeks of 2010. Peyton Manning will lean on him as he comes back to normal health, and Collie already is a loyal catcher. In a full season: 85 receptions, 1,050 yards, nine touchdowns. Of course, that could just as easily be 30 catches or lower if he dings his head again. Either way, the risk is justified at this point.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

12) Jeremy Maclin, wide receiver, Philadelphia Eagles
Team: Ryan R. Bonini | Team Roster | League Scoring

Reason and statistical expectations: A gamble selection in the fifth, but as my third receiver it's one I'm comfortable making. Maclin, who probably won't be at full-speed when the season begins, has really come into his own the past two seasons. He has big-play talent and has become a key option in the high-flying Philly offense. I'm looking for 60 receptions, 800 yards and seven touchdowns this season. 

How do you feel about each selection? Would you have made the same move? We want to hear your thoughts in the comments area at the bottom of the page. If you disagree with a pick, let your thoughts be known.

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