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ADAM ANSELL'S TOP 25 FOR NASHVILLE
1. Carl Edwards: Aside from 29th and 17th-place finishes at restrictor plate tracks, Edwards has an Average Finish of 5.6 with three poles in 2011. In 11 starts at Nashville Superspeedway, Edwards has three wins, nine Top Fives, 10 Top 10s and one pole with an Average Finish of fourth. His three wins came in succession from 2006-07. His worst finish at the site was 13th (2008). Edwards has led at least one lap in six starts, and holds an Average Starting position of 6.4 (worst being 13th). Since the inception of Loop Data in 2005, Edwards ranks fourth in Driver Rating (118.9) and third in Average Running Position (5.4). He leads all competitors with 2,404 Laps in the Top 15 and 355 Fastest Laps Run. Edwards is the premier Fantasy start in all formats this Saturday.
2. Brad Keselowski: In eight Nashville starts, Keselowski has two wins and six Top Fives with an Average Finish of 11.8. Fantasy owners shouldn't put too much stock in his Average Finish. Keselowski's 2007 debut at the site resulted in 38th and 40th-place DNFs. Take those bombs out of the equation and his Average Finish is 2.7. He's led at least 10 laps in his last three starts, and at least two laps in five starts overall. In his June 2010 domination at Nashville, he posted a 130.7 DR, 5.8 ARP and led 97 of 225 laps. Keselowski ranks eighth in DR (101.7) and 14th in ARP (13.6). He's a dominant Fantasy option in Tiered/Grouping formats.
3. Kyle Busch: Busch already has four wins in seven 2011 starts, and has led at least four laps in six starts. In nine starts at the site, Busch has one win (2009), three Top Fives, four Top 10s and two poles with an Average Finish of 14th. He's led at least 10 laps in his last three starts at Nashville, finishing in the Top Three in those events. From 2004-08 (five races), Busch struggled at the site , with zero Top 10s and an Average Finish of 22.8. Busch ranks seventh in DR (108.3) and eighth in ARP (9.7). He ranks second with 385 Laps Led. The above options will present better value, but Busch remains an elite option in all formats.
4. Joey Logano: Logano has logged five straight Top 10s, but has led laps (22) in just one event (Daytona) and has yet to capture a pole (series-high eight in 2010). In three starts at Nashville, Logano has one win (2009), two Top 10s and two poles with an Average Finish of 13.3. He's never started outside the Top Two on the grid, with an Average Start of 1.3. Logano led 64 laps in 2008, 95 laps in 2009 and 122 laps in 2010. Logano ranks third in DR (127.6) and sixth in ARP (9.1). Something tells me his laps led skid will come to a screeching halt this Saturday. Fantasy owners should trust Logano in all formats.
5. Reed Sorenson: Sorenson has recorded back-to-back Top 10s, and led his first laps of the season a week ago at Talladega. In six starts at the site, Sorenson has one win (2005), three Top Fives, four Top 10s and one pole with an Average Finish of 9.7. In his 2005 win at Nashville, he started from the pole and logged a perfect 150.0 DR, 1.3 ARP and led 197 of 225 laps. He's led at least 13 laps in four starts. Sorenson ranks sixth in DR (109.5) and fifth in ARP (8.4). He leads all competitors with 27.8 Average Quality Passes. He's the top value in all formats this week, especially in Elimination formats.
6. David Reutimann: Reutimann finished ninth (Texas) in his lone Series start this season. In eight Nashville starts, Reutimann has three Top Fives and six Top 10s with an Average Finish of 11.6. He's led at least 35 laps in just two starts, but has five straight Top 10s and an Average Finish of 5.8 in that span. Reutimann ranks ninth in DR (99.8) and 10th in ARP (11.1). Though this Saturday will mark Reutimann's first start at Nashville since 2008, Fantasy owners should expect zero rust. He's the top-rated ringer in Elimination formats.
7. Justin Allgaier: Allgaier sits second in the Series standings, just two points off the pace. In four starts at Nashville, Allgaier has two Top Fives and one pole with an Average Finish of12.5. He's logged back-to-back fourth-place finishes at the site and led 58 laps from the pole position in the 2010 event. Allgaier ranks 10th in DR (98.3) and ninth in ARP (9.9). He ranks fourth with 23.5 Average Quality Passes. He needs to be in all Tiered/Grouping format lineups.
8. Elliott Sadler: Sadler has four straight Top Fives and one pole in his last four Series starts. He led his first laps (eight) of the season last weekend at Talladega. This will mark Sadler's debut appearance at Nashville Superspeedway, but the lack of experience won't be an issue. He's scheduled to compete in Friday's Truck Series event, and has 150 laps to learn the ins-and-outs of the track. DR and ARP N/A.
9. Jason Leffler: In 12 Nashville starts, Leffler has one win (2004), four Top Fives and six Top 10s with an Average Finish of 18.2. Leffler ranks 19th in DR (83.8) and 23rd in ARP (18.3). He does lead the series standings, but has cooled off with three straight finishes outside the Top 10. He's also led zero laps with just one start inside the Top Four on the grid. Despite leading the standings, he'll be a solid value start in Tiered/Grouping formats.
10. Trevor Bayne: In three starts at Nashville, Bayne has an Average Finish of 24th. His best finish at the site is 12th (2010). He's started inside the Top Three on the grid twice, and below 10th. Bayne ranks 17th in DR (86.3) and 19th in ARP (16.3). He does have two DNFs, but has proven to be a reliable Fantasy option. Fantasy owners should look through the windshield, not the rear-view mirror when it comes to Bayne.
11. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: He's led at least five laps in his last four Series starts. 62.1 DR. 62.1 DR.
12. Aric Almirola: One Top 10 in two starts at the site. 89.0 DR.
13. Michael Annett: One Top 10 in four starts at Nashville. 75.9 DR.
14. Brian Scott: Average Finish of 22.7 in three Nashville starts. 73.4 DR.
15. Kenny Wallace: Two Top Fives and four Top 10s in 15 Nashville starts. 74.9 DR.
16. Mike Bliss: 89.5 DR.
17. Scott Wimmer: 95.4.
18. Steve Wallace: 83.6.
19. Kevin Conway: 57.1.
20. Jeremy Clements: 53.4.
21. J.R. Fitzpatrick
22. Ryan Truex
23. Austin Dillon
24. David Stremme
25. Danny O'Quinn Jr.
Adam was a 2010 Fantasy Sports Writers Awards Association nominee for Racing Writer of the Year. You can e-mail him at email@example.com and follow him @RotoExpertsAA.
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