Fantasy NASCAR Nationwide Series: Bristol Picks and Points

by Adam Ansell, RotoExperts.com on March 18, 2011 @ 03:22:00 PDT

 


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ADAM ANSELL'S TOP 25 FOR BRISTOL

1. Kyle Busch: In 13 starts at Bristol Motor Speedway, Busch has two wins, seven Top Fives, 10 Top 10s and one pole. He led 116 laps in his August 2010 victory at the site, and has led at least one lap in his last four starts at the site. Overall, he's led laps in eight of his 13 starts. He's started inside the Top Four on the grid just twice since his pole in 2005, but that shouldn't be a deterrent for Fantasy owners. Busch swept all three major Series events (Cup, Nationwide, Truck) last August at Bristol, and is the premier Tiered/Grouping format start. Since the inception of Loop Data in 2005, Busch ranks fourth in Driver Rating (106.7) and ninth in Average Running Position (12.1). He leads all competitors with 520 Laps Led and 310 Fastest Laps Run.

2. Kevin Harvick: In 20 starts at the site, Harvick has five wins, 13 Top Fives, 16 Top 10s and two poles. He's the all-time Series leader in wins and Top Fives at Bristol, as well as the all-time (pre and post-Loop Data) Laps Led (1,075) leader. Harvick's Average Finish in his last 10 starts at the site is 4.9. He's led at least 46 laps in two of his last three starts at the site and in 13 of 20 overall. In his last three starts, his Average Start is just 12.3. Harvick ranks second in DR (111.2) and third in ARP (8.8). He's running a very limited amount of races this season, and is the top Elimination format start this weekend.

3. Carl Edwards: In 13 starts at Bristol, Edwards has one win (2007), six Top Fives and eight Top 10s. He's recorded four consecutive Top Fives at Bristol, leading at least nine laps in each of those events. Edwards' Average Start in his last six starts at the site is 4.8. In his 2007 victory, Edwards posted a 144.0 DR, 1.7 ARP and led 147 of 300 laps. Edwards ranks fourth in DR (106.7) and in ARP (9.4). He leads all competitors in Laps in the Top 15 (2,662) and ranks second with 387 Laps Led. Edwards is an elite starter in all formats.

4. Brad Keselowski: In eight starts at the site, Keselowski has one win, four Top Fives, five Top 10s and two poles. A 41st-place DNF (2007) notwithstanding, Keselowski Average Finish at the site is 6.1. He's led at least 24 laps in four of his last five starts at Bristol. He's won two of the past three poles. Keselowski ranks sixth in DR (104.2) and fifth in ARP (11.2). As always, Keselowski is a top Tiered/Grouping format start and is a great bet to yield bonus points via qualifying and laps led.

5. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: In nine Bristol starts, Earnhardt Jr. has one win, five Top Fives, seven Top 10s and two poles. Junior hasn't led a lap at the site since leading 125 back in 2004. His Average Finish since 1999 (six starts) is 3.8. He owns the all-time best Average Finish at Bristol (6.9). Junior ranks eighth in DR (96.5) and 11th in ARP (13.6). Anytime Junior graces Fantasy owners with his presence in the Nationwide Series he's worth a serious look in all formats, especially Elimination.

6. Joey Logano: In four starts at Bristol, Logano has two Top 10s with an Average Finish of 12.3. He's started second on the grid in his last two starts at the site. Logano posted a Series-leading eight poles in 2010, making him a great bet for a starting position inside the Top Four at Bristol. He's led at least 21 laps in his last two starts at this track. Logano ranks 11th in DR (94.9) and seventh in ARP (11.8). Logano should be in all lineups in all formats.

7. Justin Allgaier: In four starts at the site, Allgaier has one win and two Top Fives. Bristol is the site of Allgaier's first career Series win in which he posted a 119.6 DR, 7.3 ARP and 27 Laps Led. He's started inside the Top Four just once (August 2010), which puts him a tier below the Cup regulars. Allgaier ranks seventh in DR (98.3) and 13th in ARP (15.4). He's currently fifth in the Series standings, and is a solid Tiered/Grouping format play.

8. Kasey Kahne: In 13 Bristol starts, Kahne has one win and three Top Fives. From 2006-08 (four events), Kahne recorded one win and two Top Fives while leading at least four laps in three events. In his last three starts at the site, Kahne has an Average Finish of 35.3 with three DNFs. Kahne ranks 13th in DR (92.7) and 14th in ARP (16.7). This could go either way, but I'll look on the positive side. Kahne is a solid Elimination format starter despite his recent struggles.

9. Reed Sorenson: In nine starts at Bristol, Sorenson has one Top Five and three Top 10s. He sits atop the Nationwide Series standings after three events. Sorenson has recorded seventh and eighth-place finishes in his last two starts at this track. He's never led a single lap and has started inside the Top Four on the grid just once (2006). Sorenson ranks 15th in DR (81.1) and 22nd in ARP (20.0). He'll finish somewhere in the Top 10, but bonus point potential is limited.

10. Trevor Bayne: In four starts at the site, Bayne has one Top 10 (sixth-place, August 2010). He's never led a single lap at the site, nor has he started inside the Top Four on the grid. Fantasy owners can't hold that against him, considering 2010 was his breakout campaign. Bayne ranks 19th in DR (72.9) and 20th in ARP (19.1). He ranks second in Average Quality Passes (27.5). He's a solid Tiered/Grouping format play and will come at a nice value.

11. Elliott Sadler: One win (1998), two Top Fives and one pole (2010) in eight starts at the site. 96.4 DR.

12. Danica Patrick: Ranks fourth in the Nationwide Series standings (98 points) after three races. DR N/A.

13. Aric Almirola: Finished 10th in the August 2010 event at Bristol. 75.3 DR.

14. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Led four laps in the March 2010 event at Bristol. 71.0 DR.

15. Brian Scott: Average Finish of 28th in three starts at the site. 71.3 DR.

16. Jason Leffler: 94.9 DR.

17. Kenny Wallace: 70.9.

18. Scott Wimmer: 85.9.

19. Mike Bliss: 76.8.

20. Jeremy Clements: 56.1.

21. Michael Annett

22. Ryan Truex

23. James Buescher

24. J.J. Yeley

25. Eric McClure

Adam was a 2010 Fantasy Sports Writers Awards Association nominee for Racing Writer of the Year. You can e-mail him at ansell@rotoexperts.com and follow him @RotoExpertsAA.

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About Adam Ansell, RotoExperts.com

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RotoExperts.com is a deluxe fantasy analysis and information site and content development network. Led by award-winning Fantasy veteran Scott Engel, formerly of ESPN and CBS SportsLine, the RotoExperts.com team provides distinctive and in-depth fantasy insights in all sports. RotoExperts.com is an official content provider for NFL.com, Yahoo Sports, Sports Illustrated and USA Today. RotoExperts.com was nominated for a total of eight industry awards in 2009, and won the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Award for Best Humor Article. RotoExperts.com urges you to look for the X- The Mark of Fantasy Excellence.

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