Fantasy Football on Target - Week 13

December 1, 2009 @ 10:43:18

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Tim Heaney

Opportunity in the NFL world can translate into success in the fantasy football world. This is where targets come into play. While a wide receiver may have caught only four passes in a given week, his target total might have been double or triple that. Those targets may not have translated into catches one week, but they may in the future.

The following players gained attention because of the number of targets they received this past week. Are these numbers a trend in the making or simply an aberration?

Fantasy Football on Target

It was an up-and-down fourth quarter for the Tennessee Titans' Kenny Britt last week. He fumbled early when Tennessee was driving but came back and caught two fourth-down passes on the game-winning drive, the last a 10-yard scoring reception as time expired. The 30th overall pick in the 2009 draft has seen his looks steadily improve in each of the last two weeks. He might not reach 11 looks each week - let's be honest, quarterback Vince Young probably isn't going to chuck the ball 43 times that often - but with Justin Gage's (back) status uncertain moving forward, Britt should at least get some chances.

One week after totaling 15 looks, the Carolina Panthers' Steve Smith was held to just six targets. He was shadowed for most of the day by the New York Jets' Darrelle Revis, who limited Smith to just one catch for five yards. His immediate future doesn't look like it'll improve, either, with quarterback Matt Moore possibly starting this week for the injured Jake Delhomme (finger).

How much less can Moore offer Smith?

The Philadelphia Eagles' Jason Avant, who could be a hot waiver wire pickup this week with DeSean Jackson (concussion) iffy for Week 13, has made the most of his looks this year. Over the entire season, he has 42 targets and has 32 receptions. Over the last three weeks, he has caught 17 of his 20 looks for 276 yards and one score. Look for Reggie Brown to see more work from the No. 2 spot, as well, if D-Jax is held out.

St. Louis Rams quarterback Kyle Boller's start in place of Marc Bulger (leg) last weekend coincided with wideout Donnie Avery leading the team in targets. His 12 targets only translated into four receptions for 48 yards and one touchdown. Also consider it came against the Seattle Seahawks, one of the best matchups for receivers. Danny Amendola gave a greater return on his 11 targets, finishing with seven receptions for 55 yards.

Mark Clayton, of the Baltimore Ravens, received 10 looks last week, just two shy of what he compiled in the previous four weeks combined. His receiving mate, Derrick Mason, tied for the league lead with 13. Could we see the lead flip in Week 13? Baltimore plays the Green Bay Packers, who like to line up cornerback Charles Woodson on the opposing offense's best player. Woodson could take away Mason, leaving Clayton with another decent shot to reach double-digit looks.

Wes Welker leading the New England Patriots in looks? No surprise. Sam Aiken finishing with double-digit targets (10), four more than Randy Moss, is a bit of a surprise. The increased work led to the best game of Aiken's season: seven receptions for 90 yards. Moss draws a lot of the coverage from opposing defenses (last night the New Orleans Saints gave their corners a lot of safety help on Moss), which should leave Aiken open. Whether quarterback Tom Brady looks at Aiken consistently is another question. Also, keep in mind, the Saints were running out their backups at cornerback on Monday night because of injuries.

The Cleveland Browns' Mohamed Massaquoi led the team in targets for the second straight week; this week's total was nine, but they translated into just one catch for 12 yards. He's still not on the same page as quarterback Brady Quinn (his Week 11 totals look rather pedestrian if you take away the 59-yard scoring grab). Perhaps a better option, at least a more consistent PPR option, is slot receiver Chansi Stuckey, who had eight targets last week (six the week before); he's actually nabbing a few of his looks (nine receptions in total).

Does Hines Ward want Ben Roethlisberger (concussion) back behind center? Ward had his fewest looks since Week 7 and his second fewest receptions of the season last week. Thankfully for Ward and fantasy owners, Big Ben is expected to play this week.

Count Larry Fitzgerald among those that probably want their QB1 back, too; Fitz was looked at just five times by Matt Leinart. Things are a bit more dicey with Kurt Warner (concussion) returning this week than Roethlisberger; however, despite boasting an elite pass rush, the Minnesota Vikings don't have a corner as good as Cortland Finnegan (at least not until Antoine Winfield is back), so Fitz could have a few more opportunities this week.

Fitz hoping Warner returns

Josh Morgan's utilizations jumped from four to eight for the San Francisco 49ers last week. One reason: San Fran used more of the spread offense. The Niners have plenty of receiving playmakers, so the switch to the spread makes some sense. However, they were also facing the Jacksonville Jaguars, who barely have a pass rush and were missing their top corner. Quarterback Alex D. Smith does seem more comfortable in the spread, which isn't a surprise as he played mainly in it during his college career.

The Washington Redskins' Fred Davis fell one look shy of a season high with nine targets last week. The major reason for his re-emergence: the Philadelphia Eagles. Philly has been fantasy gold for opposing tight ends all season; Davis probably won't surface again, at least significantly, until the 'Skins play the New York Giants in Week 15. For those that haven't heard, Chris Cooley (ankle) was also placed on Injured Reserve.

Oh, and the Atlanta Falcons' Tony Gonzalez is the tight end that draws the Eagles this week. If Davis can go for 4-43-1, what could Gonzo have?

We mentioned the Titans receivers, but tight end Bo Scaife deserves a mention, too. He was looked at 10 times last week, and his targets have steadily improved since Week 9. He has set a season high in looks in each of the last two weeks. In Week 12, his targets turned into five receptions for 68 yards. As we said, VY likely won't be throwing 43 times per game, but even if that comes down, Scaife is probably the safest bet to continue to receive looks among Tennessee's pass catchers.

For those that didn't watch the early game on Thanksgiving, Brandon Pettigrew, of the Detroit Lions, went down with a knee injury and has been lost for the season. Casey FitzSimmons, he of 11 targets in Week 9, none in Weeks 10 and 11, and seven last week, could be the one to benefit the most. Will Heller has been more consistent with his looks, and he has more RZ looks this year, but FitzSimmons was the one that saw his role on offense increase with Pettigrew out last week.

The San Francisco 49ers' Vernon Davis finished with nine targets, nothing out of the ordinary, but Delanie Walker managed six last week, as many as he has had since Week 5. With more spread offense in the 49ers game plan, Walker was utilized more in the passing game.

David Thomas: 6; Jason Witten: 5. Yes, the Dallas Cowboys' tight end is behind the Saints' backup tight end and frequent H-back in terms of red zone targets ALL YEAR. Keep this in mind as you are projecting for next year. Witten just doesn't get RZ looks.

Remember: Opportunity can lead to success. Find out which players we recommend adding in this week's Fantasy Football Waiver Wire.

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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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