Impact Analysis: Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions

November 13, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Rick Wagner
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

Most fantasy players know that Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson is nicknamed Megatron. The nickname comes from a Transformers character, comparing the Transformer to Johnson's physical stature and huge hands. Johnson was projected by most to have a huge year.

Megatron was regularly the fourth wide receiver taken off of the board behind only the Arizona Cardinals' Larry Fitzgerald, the Houston Texans' Andre Johnson and, oftentimes, the New England Patriots' Randy Moss. Detroit's prized receiver usually was drafted in the late first round or early second. Occasionally he slid into the mid-to-late second.

For those of you that drafted him, you are probably thinking that his nickname should be changed to Megabust. Should you stick with your high draft pick, or is it time to cut bait and trade him for whatever you can get?

Arguably, Johnson is the most physically unique player in the NFL. He is 6-foot-5, 236 pounds and is one of the fastest players in the league. The situation that Johnson finds himself in is not much different then the one he was in last year. He had an erratic quarterback last year and put up jaw-dropping numbers.

Injury has been a factor for Johnson's down output, but even before the injury Johnson was not performing up to expectations. He was, though, coming off his best game of the year (8-133-0 in Week 4) before falling to injury in Week 5. His worst game in standard point-per-reception scoring was a nine-point effort in Week 3. Johnson probably had too much expected of him from the get-go. Prior to the injury, he was on pace for 88 receptions (career high) for 1,294 yards but only four scores. The touchdown projection could have changed dramatically with two big games.

Mega-frustration

Johnson had a rough game in Week 9. Targeted nine times, he ended the contest catching only two passes for 27 yards. Granted, this was his first week back from a knee injury, so the good news is that Johnson did not look gimpy in the game. He is expected to be less than 100 percent entering Week 10.

The only concern is that he and Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford were not on the same page. Considering the pair had only limited work together before the injury, and Johnson needed to shake off some rust, it wasn't a big deal. Cameras caught uncomfortable exchanges between the receiver and quarterback. Both players said people are blowing it out of proportion. In all likelihood, anyone playing in that game or for the Lions, for that matter, is going to be frustrated. Going forward they should be fine, especially when Johnson is 100 percent healthy.

Johnson has a relatively easy schedule; most likely, the Lions will continue to be losing games, forcing them to throw the ball more than they would like to.

This week the Lions play the Minnesota Vikings, which should be a favorable matchup. The Vikes rank eighth in the past month for most fantasy points (standard PPR) given up to the position, and they probably will be without cornerback Antoine Winfield (foot) once again. The Lions should be playing catch-up, meaning plenty of opportunities for Megatron. Stafford likely will target Johnson more than usual in effort to please his No. 1 target and put their altercation behind them. Stafford knows that Johnson is the key to his own and the team's success.

After the Vikings, the Lions' schedule is as follows: Cleveland Browns (fifth most), Green Bay Packers (fourth fewest), Cincinnati Bengals (13th fewest), Baltimore Ravens (14th fewest), Arizona Cardinals (11th fewest) and San Francisco 49ers (16th fewest).

Johnson's schedule isn't particularly favorable, but it isn't very difficult, either. A player with his skill set is capable of working the mediocre matchups in his favor.

Fantasy football outlook

In most scenarios, you will come out on the losing end of trading Johnson. Some recent one-for-one trades involving the massive pass catcher have fetched the following players:

• Dallas Cowboys running back Marion Barber III
• Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeSean Jackson
• Denver Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler
• St. Louis Rams running back Steven Jackson
• Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Bernard Berrian
• New York Giants wide receiver Steven Smith
• New Orleans Saints wide receiver Devery Henderson
• Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Anquan Boldin
• New England Patriots running back Laurence Maroney
• New York Jets wide receiver Braylon Edwards
• Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer

As you can see, that is quite the array of player value. Some owners have bailed on Johnson for whatever they could land in return, while others have capitalized on his name value by fleecing an ill-informed owner.

Johnson is just too talented but is not quite 100 percent healthy. You stuck with him this long. Showing some patience could result in reward down the stretch, just as long as you are in position to assume some risk.

We're not overly excited about Johnson's prospects the rest of the way, but you probably won't receive what you're looking for in return. It never hurts to send out feeler trade requests. Remember, just like selling an automobile, you can always come down in price but you can't go up! 

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

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1

eash17e, at 12:13 on 11/17/09, says: cooollll

Report!

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2

J-rod, at 12:16 on 11/17/09, says: My fantasy experince is really limited, but i'm trying to learn. Is it kind of like the madden games where you can play with teams/players from different eras, for example the 90's cowboys or the 70's steelers? Cause it seems like "Megatron" was traded for the 2008 Jay Cutler of the Broncos.

Report!

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Rick Wagner
Rick Wagner has been a KFFL contributor since 2009.

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