Impact Analysis: Pittsburgh Steelers RBs

October 17, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Rick Wagner
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

A wise, old man used to tell me that "trouble always comes in threes." OK, that old man was my dad, but until recently I had no idea what that meant. It was the only thing that kept coming to my head while I was watching Pittsburgh Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall thrash the San Diego Chargers and Detroit Lions defenses to become fantasy relevant.

While Steelers Nation were waving their Terrible Towels, and fantasy owners were going crazy over the former first-rounder finally living up to his tremendous potential, I was thinking that trouble always comes in threes. Most fantasy players are used to running back-by-committee approaches. In fact, it has become the norm. When running back Willie Parker (toe) returns from his turf toe injury, the Steelers will have three backs sharing time in the Steel City.

Parker is slated to practice this week; barring any major setbacks, he will be active and ready to play. This begs the question: In what role will he be used? Will Fast Willie regain the starting role, or will he share carries with Mendenhall? Will the coaching staff ease him into the role? Has Mendenhall taken the starting position outright? These are all questions that will be answered in the next few weeks and could decide if your fantasy team is playing in the playoffs or preparing for next year's draft.

Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is pretty reactionary when it comes to starting and sitting players, especially young players (benching Mendenhall and deactivating Limas Sweed), so it is not a given that Mendenhall has officially taken the starting gig. Nonetheless, it is very possible that Mendenhall takes the starting job from Parker, especially with another good game in Parker's absence.

Turf toe injuries can be very deceiving and are highly subject to aggravation. It makes pushing off and cutting almost impossible. Parker also admits to suffering a significant amount of pain, so there is no guarantee that he plays this week against Cleveland and there isn't an estimation of when Parker will be 100 percent. The Steelers have had great matchups, so they did not have to rush Parker back and give him plenty of R and R.

Tearing it up

If both Parker and Mendenhall do play they will likely share carries. Offensive coordinator Bruce Arians has been quoted as saying Parker is his guy when healthy. He went on to say that Mendenhall is an unproven commodity. Coach Tomlin has stated from the preseason that Parker would be the starter and there would not be a committee, but by Week 2 Mendenhall was being used every third series. Before the injury, Mendenhall tallied only seven carries in three games.

It will be nearly impossible for the coaching staff to overlook Mendenhall's production, and they will find ways to get him on the field. Mendenhall has rushed 51 times for 287 yards (5.6 per carry) on his way to three touchdowns, compared to Parker's 52 carries for 159 yards (3.1 per carry) without a touchdown.

The goal line carries will likely go to the primary back on the field during that drive, if Tomlin's history is indicative of future usage. Sharing carries diminishes the value of both players. This is not your typical Steelers team. They have become a pass-happy team. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has 48 more pass attempts and 523 more yards this year than through five weeks last year. Back in the day, if the Steelers were up 28-13 in the second half opposing teams were going to see a heavy dose of Jerome Bettis. Last weekend in Detroit, up 28-13, Mendenhall carried the ball only six times.

While trying to figure out the role of Mendenhall and Parker will likely make fantasy owners want to rip their hair out, the role of Mewelde Moore is very easy to explain. Moore will be the team's third-down and passing-downs back. Barring an injury, this will not change. Tomlin adores Moore and brought him over from his days in Minnesota. His teammates refer to Moore as "The Chain Mover." 

I know you are thinking, the information is great, and thanks for the stats, but what do I do if I own these players? The Steelers have a great matchup this week against the Cleveland Browns, but their following games are against the Minnesota Vikings (Week 7) and at the Denver Broncos (Week 9) with a bye week in between. Mendenhall (illness) is a must-start this week against a Browns team that, quite frankly, is not very good. Despite missing practice time with an illness, Mendenhall participated in full Friday and should play. If he plays, Parker, who is wearing special protective footwear, is a good flex play in deeper leagues, make sure to monitor his injury and see if he will go before inserting him in your lineup.

Going forward, Mendenhall is the back that you want. If you own him, ride out the matchups. He has the potential to win you games (see 165 rushing yards against San Diego). Keep in mind that Mendenhall has had very favorable matchups. He has faced the Chargers, Lions and Browns - teams that don't come to mind when you think of run defense. Mendenhall has tremendous upside and is better at catching the ball out of the backfield than Parker.

Fantasy football outlook

Parker is in the final year of his contract and all signs point to him having one foot out of the door. The Steelers will likely groom Mendenhall into the starter they project him to be for quite sometime. We are not ready to claim him as a weekly must-start just yet, but Mendenhall will be a solid No. 2 back in all leagues. When the Steelers bye week comes, shop him around, he may be a sell-high player.

As for Parker, keep in mind that this is probably his final year in Steel Town. He has been injury prone, missing eight of the past 25 games (including the postseason). When healthy he rushed for more than 1,300 yards, so he will get his touches. Parker will likely be a solid flex play in 10-team formats and a low end No. 2 running back or a flex play in 12-team or deeper leagues.

Moore is probably a non-factor in most fantasy leagues unless you have bye week or injury issues. Nevertheless, in 14-team leagues you could do worse. Moore is productive in a limited role with 14 catches and 12 carries. Moore is an excellent pass catcher and dangerous when provided space. Let us not forget that last year he filled in admirably when Parker and Mendenhall were out with injuries. He rushed for 99 (Jacksonville Jaguars), 120 (Cincinnati Bengals) and 84 (New York Giants) yards in consecutive games. If you own Parker or Mendenhall and Moore is available in your league, scoop him up as an outstanding handcuff.

Former wrestler "The Nature Boy" Ric Flair once said, "To be the man, you gotta beat the man!" Until Mendenhall beats the man (Parker), the Steelers backfield situation may be one to stay away from. If he does, he may have fantasy owners quoting Flair's famous "Wooooo!"

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

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1

Teabaggers, at 11:50 on 10/17/09, says: Rashard will take over the starting role soon. Parker will get his share of touches till they notice his 2yds per carry. Parker will spend the rest of the year going in to give rashard a short break.

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2

jack, at 01:02 on 10/17/09, says: Let's not jump on the Rashard bandwagon too soon. He's had two great performances against weak competition. Let's see if he can play consistently at this level all year. If he can prove to be the player the team thought he would be than Willie Parker is playing in another uniform next year.

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Rick Wagner
Rick Wagner has been a KFFL contributor since 2009.

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