Impact Analysis: September callups

September 4, 2009 @ 14:00:00

By Ilan Mochari and KFFL Staff
Edited by Tim Heaney

Fantasy baseball players must know which September callups can make an impact. Though a youngster may be highly touted, they may not contribute enough playing time to make a difference for your team.

Catchers

Josh Thole, New York Mets - The Mets are allowing Thole to audition for the 2010 job. He made his big league debut Thursday and went 2-for-5 with a double and a stolen base. He's expected to play regularly over the final month. Thole, who turns 23 in October, posted a .328-1-46 season at Double-A Binghamton, which also included eight swipes and 48 runs in 384 at-bats.

His superb batting eye should help his transition. He doesn't have much power potential to speak of, but the hitting skills alone should catch the eyes of keeper players, NL-only owners and two-backstop lineup leaguers. 

Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants - With Bengie Molina (quadriceps) battling the injury bug after missing the last seven games, the Giants called up the super prospect earlier than they originally wanted to. Posey (.325-18-80 in the minors this year) poses a tempting offensive option for a run-deprived team, but a healthy Molina would cloud his schedule.

The organization has hinted at frustration that Molina isn't playing through the injury. If they want to move to the future now.... Those in two-catcher leagues would understandably have more urgency to give him a try. Full-retention keeper leaguers should pounce if he's somehow available, but don't count on much production this year.

Tyler Flowers, Chicago White Sox - Obtained from the Atlanta Braves in the deal for starting pitcher Javier Vazquez, Flowers raked (.297/.423/.516) in 353 combined at-bats at Double-A and Triple-A. While the trade of designated hitter Jim Thome to the Los Angeles Dodgers ostensibly opens an opportunity, Flowers, 23, is no lock for instant at-bats.

Clement's talented bat might remain blocked

Manager Ozzie Guillen has stated he will not play callups until the team is eliminated. Also, catcher A.J. Pierzynski remains entrenched as the starting backstop. In addition, Chicago may continue devoting DH time to its veteran outfielders. All told, Flowers, who bats right-handed, may not get enough plate appearances to reap fantasy dividends in 2009. He remains roster-worthy in keeper and dynasty formats, but fantasy prospectors should temper expectations. With his long swing, the 6-foot-4 slugger strikes out a ton (around 30.6 percent this year) and his walk rate plummeted (18.7 to 8.7 percent) after his promotion to Triple-A.

Keep an eye on: Jeff Clement, Pittsburgh Pirates - Though Pittsburgh may not have first base or catcher open for him, Clement (.274-21-90 in two Triple-A spots this year) warrants some attention if he earns a chance in September. His bat might outweigh his defensive deficiencies, so they may squeeze him in. This speculation-heavy add would help if you need a second backstop, though; he has nothing left to prove on the farm.

Corner infielders

Mike Carp, Seattle Mariners - With Russell Branyan (back) potentially out for September and Jack Hannahan being an uninspiring replacement, Carp will have a chance to make some noise at first base with frequent PT. He put forth a .271-15-64 line in 413 at-bats for Triple-A Tacoma this year, along with a line-drive rate hovering around 20 percent.

He didn't do much in limited duty in his first go-round in the Northwest this year, but he was in the starting lineup Tuesday night. The lefty slugger may not play often, if at all, against lefties. His future stock depends on if the team retains Branyan; he's strictly AL-only material for this year.

Neil Walker, Pittsburgh Pirates - Once the top prospect in the Pirates system, Walker, 23, has struggled at Triple-A Indianapolis, posting .248/.291/.428 numbers in 1,009 at-bats at that level. A converted catcher who was the 11th overall pick in 2004, Walker earned his callup following a scorching August: The right-handed hitter led the International League with 29 RBIs, batting .339 with four home runs. Earlier this season, Walker had missed six weeks with a strained PCL ligament in his left knee. He says the time off "put things in perspective from a baseball standpoint," allowing him to rededicate himself. "I wanted to make a concerted effort to bust my butt as hard as I could."

Though Walker's promotion to his hometown Pirates is a sweet story after his five seasons in the minors, fantasy owners should resist the temptation to pick him up. For one thing, Pirates manager John Russell has said Walker will be used off the bench. For another, third baseman Andy LaRoche is established as the Pirates starter at the hot corner for 2009 and likely 2010, or until Pedro Alvarez, the real future, is ready. Moreover, Walker's Triple-A track record suggests he may lack the ability to seize such a chance at regular PT.

Outfielders

Michael Brantley, Cleveland Indians - With reports saying Grady Sizemore (elbow) will miss the end of this season, Brantley has even more guaranteed time. Trevor Crowe (oblique), who holds a similar profile to Sizemore, should be returning from the DL soon, but Brantley could factor in as well.

Just called up from Triple-A Columbus, the lefty stick swiped 46 bags and crossed the plate 80 times but went .267-6-37 in 457 at-bats. The 22-year-old went 2-for-4 with a run scored in his MLB debut Tuesday and may bat leadoff at some point this year. His green light on the base paths makes him a potential deep mixed rental.

Justin Maxwell, Washington Nationals - With Nyjer Morgan's (hand) season over, Maxwell could be on his last chance to claim a starting outfield job in the Beltway. Though he went 0-for-3 in the first game of his third stint with the club this year, he hit 13 homers, stole 35 bases and scored runs at Triple-A Syracuse despite an ugly .242 clip in 384 at-bats. A more closed stance and a shortened swing helped him start producing this summer.

Willie Harris may still be a factor in replacing Morgan, and Maxwell will have to earn time. Still, Maxwell's combo of power and speed potential makes him the more enticing fantasy pickup. He's a must-add in NL leagues.

Maybin not lined up for much PT

Cameron Maybin, Florida Marlins - Talk about a 180. Maybin was recalled from Triple-A New Orleans, but he will probably be used in a limited role for the rest of the MLB season. The much hyped talent backed it up in the minors this year, hitting .319 with three homers, 39 RBIs and eight swipes in 82 games as he fought through injuries. As long as his role remains diminished, so does his fantasy value.

Keep an eye on: Allen Craig, St. Louis Cardinals - The 25-year-old Craig, a candidate for MLB duty this year, has batted more than .300 and exceeded 20 home runs for three straight minor league campaigns. In 2009, he has excelled at Triple-A Memphis (.323/.376/.549) despite a low walk rate (7.4 percent this year) and high strikeout rate (20.2 percent). His fantasy future depends largely on Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday. If Holliday, a pending free agent, departs, Craig could contend for the left-field job in 2010 (and a chance to post gaudy numbers).

If Holliday stays, Craig could become the No. 4 outfielder, but bench duty might limit his statistical upside. In terms of 2009, Craig's fantasy viability is questionable. With Memphis in a playoff race, Craig, who bats right-handed, may not get called up until later this month. Even then, his value hinges on whether the Cardinals rest their regulars or ride them in an effort to secure home-field advantage in the National League playoffs.

If you're considering Craig in a keeper or dynasty league, remember that his third-base eligibility is no sure thing. After making 17 errors at third base in 2008, Craig has spent the majority of 2009 at first base and left field, committing only two errors at those positions.

Starting pitchers

Wade Davis, Tampa Bay Rays - Davis will make his major league debut against the Detroit Tigers on Sunday, Sept. 6, one day before his 24th birthday. He is ready for the leap, if his stats at Triple-A Durham are any indication: In 158 2/3 innings, the 6-foot-5 right-hander went 10-8 with a 3.40 ERA, fanning 140 batters and walking 60. Davis claims he improved control over his changeup during the season.

His arsenal already included a low to mid-90s fastball and a curveball that Rays manager Joe Maddon has termed "a really good hook." Davis and veteran starting pitcher Andy Sonnanstine (who will start on Monday, September 7) are vying to join the Rays starting rotation, replacing the spot vacated when the Rays traded starting pitcher Scott Kazmir to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. If Davis joins the rotation, he is worth adding in AL-only formats. In deeper leagues, Davis is worth streaming for spot starts, especially if he demonstrates an ability to replicate his Triple-A dominance rates (7.94 K/9).

Daniel McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates - A 26-year-old with excellent command, McCutchen debuted in the majors on Monday, Aug. 31, limiting the Cincinnati Reds to three runs and five hits in six innings. It was a no-decision for the right-hander, who struck out five and walked only two after allowing a leadoff home run to Reds outfielder Drew Stubbs. McCutchen's next start is scheduled for Monday, Sept. 7 in Pittsburgh against the Chicago Cubs.

The Pirates expect McCutchen to remain in their six-man rotation for the rest of the season. Given that opportunity, he is a solid add in NL-only formats for owners falling short of inning maximums. At Triple-A Indianapolis, McCutchen went 13-6 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He struck out 110 batters in 142 2/3 innings (6.94 K/9) and kept his walks down (1.83 BB/9). After the all-star break, McCutchen posted a 1.90 ERA and scarcely walked anyone (1.04 BB/9).

McCutchen attributes the improvement to decreased reliance on his fastball and changeup, in favor of his slider and curve. "He's executing pitches more consistently," director of player development Kyle Stark recently told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "We challenged Daniel to pitch more this year, focus on maintaining a consistent energy level and manage his emotions allowing him to command his stuff better." Though Pirates starting pitchers are iffy fantasy propositions, McCutchen's low-WHIP potential makes him an intriguing '09 rental and a deep sleeper heading into 2010 drafts.

Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians - Obtained from the Philadelphia Phillies in the trade for starting pitcher Cliff Lee, Carrasco debuted in the majors on Tuesday, Sept. 1 on the road against the Detroit Tigers. It did not go well for the 6-foot-3 right-hander. He lasted only three innings in a loss, yielding six earned runs, nine hits and three home runs.

Carrasco, 22, told the AP that his fastball "was all over the place." It was the first time Carrasco had pitched poorly in a while. At Triple-A Columbus, he was 5-1 with a 3.19 ERA and 0.90 WHIP since the Lee trade, with an impressive walk rate (1.49 BB/9). Those numbers were a far cry from his stats at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, the Phillies affiliate: 6-9 with a 5.18 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 2.98 BB/9. Boasting a plus curve and a low to mid-90s fastball and a career minor league strikeout rate of 8.02 K/9, Carrasco has the potential to amass strikeouts in the majors.

AL-only owners should monitor his next start. If he controls his heater, he has the potential to pad your squad's strikeout numbers. However, Carrasco's fantasy viability for 2010 remains an open question. He is no lock to make the starting rotation or opening day roster.

KFFLians are saying....

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nathan, at 01:56 on 09/06/09, says: where are the middle infielders?

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Ilan Mochari
Ilan Mochari has been a KFFL contributor since 2007.

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