Impact Analysis: Ted Ginn Jr., Miami Dolphins

August 25, 2009 @ 04:00:50

By Scott Foreman
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

This year the Miami Dolphins' Ted Ginn Jr. enters his third season in the NFL. The third year for a receiver is often a breakout season, and Ginn showed glimpses of potential in 2008 when he caught 56 passes for 790 yards. Unfortunately only two of those catches resulted in scores. Dolphins fans hope that Ginn is able to realize his potential and provide that breakthrough season.

Ginn was often electrifying while playing at Ohio State, but it has not completely translated to the NFL as of yet. Ginn has blazing speed but with soft-tossing quarterback Chad Pennington at the helm his speed isn't truly utilized. Miami prefers a conservative passing attack to go along with their strong running game. They also like to lineup in their wildcat formation quite often, which is not conducive to the passing game, let alone the deep ball to a receiver.

Ginn's size (5-foot-11, 180 pounds) does not make him the prototypical red zone target. This is evidenced by the fact that he has just four receiving touchdowns in his two-year career. In 2008, he was targeted an embarrassingly low five times in the red zone (tied multi-way for 83rd in the league). However, he also ran for two scores last season on just five attempts. One of those rushing touchdowns covered 40 yards, thus illustrating his big-play potential.

Table: Ginn's week-by-week target breakdown (2008)

Type	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17
Total targets	8	1	6	Bye	8	2	7	9	7	8	7	8	8	4	4	6	5
Type	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17
Red zone targets	1	0	0	Bye	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0

The former Buckeye was targeted 108 times in total (10.7 percent of the offense).

Consistency hasn't been Ginn's best friend; he posted five games with less than 20 receiving yards. Furthermore, he had three games with just a single catch and three others in which he caught only two passes. Games like this are obviously frustrating for fantasy owners, especially in point-per-reception formats. 

Fantasy football outlook

Ginn is a definite sleeper candidate in 2009. He has been drafted mostly as a low-end No. 3 or No. 4 receiver but could perform better than that. He is no threat to reach elite receiver status, largely because of the Dolphins' run-first approach. If he is able to limit the dud games while capitalizing on his limited opportunities he will make a solid No. 3 starter week in and week out. He also needs to find his way into the end zone a little more often.

The explosive Ginn should improve on last year's numbers. He may get more opportunities to run the ball as it appears the Dolphins will again be featuring the wildcat formation as a staple within their offensive attack.

KFFL's projection range: 56-66 receptions, 852-1,002 yards and four to six touchdowns

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Scott Foreman

Scott Foreman is a graduate of the University of Michigan and a lifelong fan of Detroit sports. He has been an avid fantasy sports player since the early nineties. Foreman has been a KFFL contributor since 2004.

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