Fantasy Football: NFC West division preview
By Cory J. Bonini
Edited by Nicholas Minnix
This analysis provides fantasy owners with a snapshot of the key fantasy football situations and players for each respective team in the division. For more detailed analysis, please visit our Fantasy Football Preseason Draft Guide.
Offensive style: pass-heavy
Key additions: RB Chris Wells, RB Jason Wright
Potential sleeper(s)
- Tim Hightower, running back: The addition of Chris Wells has cast Hightower into an unknown role. It is presumed he will be a third-down back, but there is no guarantee the arguably fragile Wells will get the lion's share of the carries this year.
Potential bust(s)
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Are you hip to Warner's risk? |
Kurt Warner, quarterback: The 38-year-old Warner (hip) hasn't been the model of health in his career and is still recovering from offseason hip surgery. Thinking he'll replicate last year's magical season is a bit optimistic, but he remains a midrange No. 1 fantasy quarterback if you want to roll the dice.
Potential breakout player(s)
- Chris Wells, running back: We don't believe any player in the Cardinals' potent offense is a true breakout candidate. Wells is if he receives the bulk of the work, but we aren't crazy about his prospects to shine as a rookie.
Offensive line quality
- Arizona abandoned the run for much of last season, averaging a league-low 21.2 attempts per game (3.5 yards-per-carry average). Warner was sacked only 26 times, and there is no reason to believe the offensive line will be any different in 2009.
Defensive quality
- The unit lost defensive end Antonio D. Smith (Texans) and gained cornerback Bryant McFadden (Steelers). This 3-4 defense should improve from last year with more chemistry and continuity, but it may take awhile with new defensive coordinator Bill Davis taking over. A poor Cardinals D means a continued pass-happy offense.
Miscellaneous observation(s)
- The changes at defensive and offensive coordinators (Russ Grimm) means there could be a transition period early in the season, primarily on defense, which could affect fantasy production.
Offensive style: run-heavy
Key additions: OT Jason Smith, C Jason Brown, WR Ronald Curry, WR Laurent Robinson, QB Kyle Boller
Potential sleeper(s)
- Marc Bulger, quarterback: After two miserable seasons in a row, fantasy owners have turned their backs on Bulger. We don't blame them, either. A more disciplined offensive game plan should benefit him considerably. Still, Bulger isn't draftable in standard league formats but should make for a decent fallback plan on your waiver wire.
- Randy McMichael, tight end: An injury-shortened 2008 leaves McMichael as a forgotten man in fantasy circles. Offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur is expected to run a West Coast-style system, which favors the tight end position. View McMichael as a midrange No. 2 for your fantasy squad.
Potential bust(s)
- Steven Jackson, running back: Our only concern with Jackson is that his physical style of play leaves him more open to injuries than a lot of other backs. Can he hold up with an increased workload after two years of spending four games apiece on the mend?
Potential breakout player(s)
- Donnie Avery, wide receiver: We like Avery to break out after a 53-catch, 674-yard rookie season. He is the expected No. 1 receiver, and the 5-foot-11, 184-pounder is a home run threat. Draft him as a weak third receiver or ideal fourth fantasy wideout.
Offensive line quality
- The talent is in place; now chemistry and health seem to be the biggest factors. The Rams acquired talented center Jason Brown (Ravens) and drafted offensive tackle Jason Smith No. 2 overall. A healthy Richie Incognito at right guard should benefit the running game. Tackle Alex Barron's progression this year is paramount to this group's success.
Defensive quality
- Defensive-minded head coach Steve Spagnuolo should mold this group into a respectable unit, but it may take a little time. The Rams finished in a multi-way tie for 16th place in sacks with 30, a number that needs to increase. If the secondary is improved the Rams won't have much of a problem adhering to their desire to pound the rock to an excess.
Miscellaneous observation(s)
- This group could be better than most people expect, but everything is predicated on Jackson staying healthy.
Offensive style: run-heavy
Key additions: WR Michael Crabtree, RB Glen Coffee, WR Brandon Jones, OT Marvel Smith
Potential sleeper(s)
- Josh Morgan, wide receiver: We like Morgan as a fourth receiver to take a chance on. He has size (6-foot, 219 pounds) and speed (16.0 yards-per-reception average last year); wideout Isaac Bruce is long in the tooth and could break down at any time. Rookie Michael Crabtree (foot) probably won't be much of a factor in Year 1, so Morgan may end up being the leading receiver.
- Glen Coffee, running back: The rookie back is expected to complement Frank Gore and spell him on occasion. The coaching staff will emphasize a power-running attack, and Gore has injury concerns, so we may see more of Coffee than expected.
Potential bust(s)
- Frank Gore, running back: Gore could be a monster this year, but it all hinges on his health. Nonetheless, he is a worthwhile risk late in the first round.
Potential breakout player(s)
- Vernon Davis, tight end: Continued maturation by Davis and a melting pot of receivers could lead to a lot of tight end usage for this offense. Davis has the physical talent to be dynamic and could be a valuable No. 2 fantasy tight end.
Offensive line quality
- Veteran right tackle Marvel Smith should help improve the run blocking. We think the line needs to gel early to reach their potential and maximize fantasy value in the offense. They allowed the most sacks (55) in the league last year, and that, of course, has to change for the offense to play with as few interruptions as possible.
Defensive quality
- On paper, at least, the Niners are making progress defensively with their 3-4 alignment. This unit finished 13th in total yards per game allowed (326) in 2008. The offense wants to run and run some more in '09, so the defense needs to keep up its end of the bargain for O to work effectively.
Miscellaneous observation(s)
- This offense could be much better than people give them credit for with respectable pass blocking, assuming Shaun Hill wins the quarterback job and Gore stays healthy.
Offensive style: run-heavy
Key additions: WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, OL Max Unger
Potential sleeper(s)
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It might be do or die for Jones in '09 |
Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett, running backs: The hiring of offensive coordinator Greg Knapp means the Seattle offense won't be the pass-happy version Mike Holmgren ran. Both Jones and Duckett should receive plenty of work. If healthy, Jones is a great fourth back with upside to produce low No. 2 numbers. Duckett's best value remains in touchdown-heavy leagues.
Potential bust(s)
- Matt Hasselbeck, quarterback: A soon-to-be 34-year-old quarterback with a disc problem in his back doesn't sound like it adds up to a 16-start season. Hasselbeck says his back is in good shape, but something like that can flare up at any time. We'll take our chances elsewhere, thank you.
Potential breakout player(s)
- We don't view any players in Seattle's offense as true breakout candidates outside of Jones.
Offensive line quality
- The left side of the line is getting old between Walter Jones (35) and Mike Wahle (32), but the rest of the group is on the right side of 30. The major question is whether Jones has enough in the tank to protect Hasselbeck's blind side. The line will utilize a zone-blocking scheme, too, which may take some getting used to. If the left side shows its age, the Seattle offense could struggle.
Defensive quality
- The Seahawks' defense is underrated and should be better in 2009. Defensive end Patrick Kerney comes back from injury, cornerback Ken Lucas (Panthers) returns after several seasons on the other coast, and Seattle spent their first-round pick on linebacker Aaron Curry. This group, a 4-3 base defense, shouldn't hinder the offense.
Miscellaneous observation(s)
- Hasselbeck's back situation scares us, and the entire offense would suffer should he miss significant time again.
- Nate Burleson is expected to work out of the slot, and so will newcomer T.J. Houshmandzadeh at times. Deion Branch holds down the starting flanker position in two-receiver sets.
