Impact Analysis: Brett Anderson, Oakland Athletics

July 23, 2009 @ 17:01:07

By Ilan Mochari
Edited by Tim Heaney

Almost overnight, Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Brett Anderson has become a rookie sensation. On the surface, his stats hardly seem remarkable. Heading into his projected start at the New York Yankees on Friday, July 24, his ERA (4.25) and WHIP (1.28) are barely better than league averages. His record (5-7) and strikeout totals (70 K's in 95 1/3 innings) are impressive for a 21-year-old, but not exactly the stuff of legend.

A different sight comes up when you view Anderson through the prism of his last four starts: In 26 1/3 innings of work, he has allowed only one earned run (0.34 ERA) and 11 hits, amassing a 2-0 record and whiffing 25 batters. Anderson has also compiled a streak of 21 consecutive scoreless innings. These feats are all the more impressive when you consider he faced the Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - all of whom crack the MLB top six in OBP, OPS and runs scored.

Is Anderson's recent play indicative of what he can do for the rest of the season? Should fantasy owners sell high in July, or hang on to the promising southpaw?

A scorching July

In July - comprising his last three starts - opposing batters have managed a measly .137 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against Anderson. That figure is comically fluky - and it is unsustainably low. By comparison, the BABIP for all 32 major league teams ranges from .270 (San Diego Padres) to .324 (Angels). In April, May and June, the BABIP of Anderson's opposing batters was .274, .318 and .370 respectively. In the minor leagues, opposing batters posted BABIP numbers of .316 (2008) and .350 (2007) against Anderson.

It is impossible to ignore such an aberrantly minute BABIP when dissecting Anderson's July hot streak. While Anderson deserves some credit for the low BABIP, the number also suggests that he has benefited from luck and defense. In fact, Anderson acknowledged that the A's defense "saved me a few times" after he pitched eight innings of two-hit ball versus the Angels on Sunday, July 19, though that's what's called "athlete speak" when they take the limelight off themselves.

Generally Oakland does not play good team defense (.982 fielding percentage, ranking 21st), but they have only committed one error in Anderson's three July starts.

Although good defense helps any pitcher, it is especially valuable to a hurler like Anderson, whose contact rate (83.7) is safely above the league average. Moreover, major leaguers have made contact with 92.9 percent of Anderson's strikes - the third highest zone-contact rate among all MLB pitchers. That figure is all the more significant when you realize that Anderson throws strikes at a 51.1 percent clip, also safely above the league average. Indeed, he is the type of hurler who pitches "to contact," using a mixed arsenal to probe the strike zone and induce easy putouts.

Opposing batters have certainly made contact with Anderson's pitches - but in July, the contact has not translated into hits or runs. Sure, some of that is attributable to BABIP factors such as luck and defense. However, a lot of it is connected to Anderson's precocious ability to locate not only his fastball, but also all three of his secondary pitches: a nasty slider, which he throws 30.9 percent of the time, not to mention a curve (5.8) and a changeup (10.1).

Sharper with rest

While a low opponents' BABIP has played a part, Anderson himself deserves accolades for allowing just one earned run in his last four starts. By all accounts, he has thrown harder and with increased command. One reason for this may be the extra rest he has received prior to those starts. Specifically, he had six days of rest prior to the July 19 start versus the Angels; five prior to his July 12 start at Tampa Bay; six prior to his July 5 start at Boston; and eight prior to his June 29 start versus the Detroit Tigers.

Anderson's splits plainly reveal a pitcher who is more effective with extra rest:

Table 1: Brett Anderson 2009 performance based on rest

	Four days' rest	Five days' rest	Six days' rest
IP	39 2/3	18 2/3	37
ERA	4.99	4.34	3.41
WHIP	1.39	1.34	1.11
BABIP	.319	.328	.236
K/BB	4.00	2.20	2.45

Though his command actually decreases with more rest, the BABIP trend is striking.

Of course, not every pitcher excels with extra rest. To cite just one convenient counterexample, Anderson's teammate, A's starting pitcher and fellow rookie Trevor Cahill, has performed better in his 12 starts on four days rest (4.35 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2.06 strikeout-to-walk ratio) than he has in his four starts on five days rest (7.41 ERA, 2.24 WHIP, 0.53 K/BB).

In other words, the question of precisely why Anderson is more effective with extra rest deserves some exploration. According to the radar gun, he simply throws harder. In July, Anderson's fastball and slider velocities have increased significantly compared to previous months.

Aside from the increased velocity, Anderson has also displayed superior command after extra rest. After the Angels game, A's manager Bob Geren praised Anderson's ability to spot the ball on both sides of the plate. "You could tell he was on," Geren said. "(Catcher Kurt) Suzuki seemed like he hardly had to move his glove at all. Either he was right on the corners or just missing by inches."

Mind you, Anderson's command (2.36 BB/9) had not been a problem. In April, May and June he had only walked 21 batters in 74 1/3 innings (2.54 BB/9). In July, however, Anderson has stepped it up, walking only three batters in 21 innings (1.29 BB/9).

It is no stretch to link Anderson's increased velocity and command to the July jumps in his strikeout totals. Indeed, though Anderson routinely gassed hitters in the minors (at least 9.23 K/9 at every stop), overall he has yet to whiff major leaguers at the same pace (6.61 K/9). However, in July, his dominance rate jumped to 7.7 K/9. He is still, by and large, pitching "to contact," but he is also making more batters swing and miss.

Consistent with his increased strikeout rates and decreased walk rates, Anderson has become a more efficient pitcher, throwing fewer pitchers per inning in July (12.62) than in June (16.96), May (17.79) or April (15.99). Throwing fewer pitches per inning, Anderson has pitched at least eight innings in two of his last three starts. That, in and of itself, is a drastic improvement probably partially related to his increased rest, but Anderson had never even reached the eighth inning in his previous 14 starts, and he had only finished seven innings twice.

There may be more to Anderson's improved endurance than pitching efficiency or days of rest between starts. Reportedly, Anderson has improved his overall conditioning, and perhaps this is paying some dividends on the mound. Coming out of high school, the biggest knock on Anderson was his lack of athleticism and soft frame (6-foot-4, 215 pounds). He had trouble fielding bunts and covering first base.

However, Anderson has applied himself to the problem, sticking to a weightlifting regimen and practicing his sprinting under the watch of A's strength and conditioning coach Bobby Alejo. "I'm never going to have a six-pack or be able to run 10 miles, but I'm in the best pitching shape I've been in," Anderson said recently.

Will the spell wear off?

The A's are in the midst of a span of 28 consecutive games, a stretch that will not end until Wednesday, August 12 barring any postponements. What this means is that it might be difficult for Anderson to get extra rest during his next few starts.

That rest might be necessary not only for enhancing Anderson's performances, but also for simply resting his body. Anderson has had his share of bumps and bruises this year, despite making 17 starts. He left the July 12 game against the Rays after four innings with lower back stiffness. Following his June 20 start at the San Diego Padres, Anderson complained of fatigue and biceps tightness in his left arm. He made his next start against the Tigers on eight days rest. In May, he missed a start because of a blister on his finger. In Spring Training, Anderson left a game with forearm tightness.

On top of these assorted ailments, Anderson has already pitched 95 1/3 innings in 2009. He is rapidly approaching the 105 minor league innings he tossed in 2008. Also, it is not as if Anderson stretched himself out in 2007, when he threw 120 1/3 minor league innings. Anderson has transitioned so well to the majors that it is easy to forget he made the jump after only 31 innings at Double-A. With the A's in last place, there is no reason for them to push a future cornerstone of their staff to throw a single excess inning.

Dingers

Also, if Anderson's numbers have an Achilles' heel, it is his 11.6 home run-to-flyball ratio, up somewhat from his minor league totals in 2007 (8.2) and 2008 (10.1). Anderson has yet to yield a home run in July, but he gave up 13 home runs in 74 1/3 innings in April, May and June. Also, at his final minor league stop, Double-A Midland, his home run-to-flyball ratio soared to 17.6.

Given Anderson's propensity for pitching to contact, his history of allowing home runs is something to keep an eye on. In four of his 17 starts in 2009, Anderson has given up two or more home runs. In Anderson's defense, all four of those starts were on the road. At Oakland-Alameda County Stadium, Anderson has surrendered only three home runs in 42 2/3 innings pitched. On the road, he has yielded 10 home runs in 52 2/3 innings.

Fantasy baseball outlook

It is hard not to be optimistic about Anderson's future, considering the excellent control he has displayed as a rookie. Anderson has also shown an ability to improve in season, using fewer pitches per inning and upping his dominance. While his low opponents' BABIP may have something to do with the newfound success, it is hard not to applaud Anderson for his recent run of 21 shutout innings against stiff competition.

Of course, Anderson has more value in AL-only setups, where in the tight player pool it is difficult finding quality starting pitchers. At bottom, he remains a solid matchup play at home, where he allows fewer home runs. In deep mixed leagues, Anderson's upside makes him too valuable to cut as long as he is a regular member of the rotation.

That said, his value is peaking right now. Given his bumps and bruises and the A's position in the standings, it is hard to imagine Oakland will attempt to wring 180 innings out of him. If you can trade Anderson, now is the time, but it might be tough convincing another owner that Anderson can be more than a No. 4 or 5 fantasy starter for the rest of this season, assuming the A's do not limit his innings at some point.

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Ilan Mochari
Ilan Mochari has been a KFFL contributor since 2007.

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