Impact Analysis: Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland Indians

July 17, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Ilan Mochari
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

Halfway through the 2009 campaign, Cleveland Indians outfielder Shin-Soo Choo is on pace for a 20-20 season. Better still, he is producing in the power and speed categories without sacrificing batting average. In short, Choo has been an ideal fantasy outfielder. He has delivered on the promise he showed in the second half of 2008, when in 210 at-bats he raked for astonishing percentages (.343/.424/.614), hammered 11 home runs and delivered 48 RBIs.

Is Choo due for another astounding second half? How much of his productivity is attributable to skill (22.6 percent line-drive rate), and how much of it does he owe to luck (.364 batting average on balls in play)?

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In his last 636 at-bats, which span the entirety of his 2008 and 2009 seasons, Choo has 27 home runs, 120 RBIs and 121 runs scored. If you split these at-bats into 2008 and 2009, Choo has been consistent from one season to the next. In 2008, he posted 14 home runs and 68 RBIs in 317 at-bats. In 2009, he has totaled 13 home runs and 54 RBIs in 319 at-bats.

By sabermetric measures, Choo has been less consistent, following up his 2008 breakout (.309/.397/.549) with a solid 2009 (.292/.401/.476). Though Choo's slugging percentage has dropped noticeably from 2008, his home run total has not. The falloff in slugging has taken place because Choo is not hitting doubles at the same rate. In 2008, Choo averaged one double every 13.2 at-bats. This season, Choo is averaging one double per 17.7 at-bats. Of course, Choo has already drilled 18 doubles and is on pace to exceed his 2008 total (28). That doesn't change the fact that, on an at-bat basis, he is doubling less frequently.

One reason may be that Choo is seeing fewer fastballs in 2009 (53.1 percent) than he did in 2008 (56.7). This may be coincidence, or it may be that teams have discovered a better approach to Choo. Note that catcher Victor Martinez (.853 OPS) was enjoying a bounce-back campaign in the three-hole in the season's first two months. Indians designated hitter Travis Hafner (.952 OPS) is not the offensive force that he used to be, but he isn't a walk in the park, either.

Lineup changes

In the first game after the All-Star break, Indians manager Eric Wedge moved Choo to third in the lineup and dropped catcher Victor Martinez to fourth. Choo had slumped prior to the break, going 1-for-16 in the five games leading up to it. Of course, Martinez's recent slump (4-for-49 in his last 15 games) might also have influenced the switch. It also brought about the avoidance of two consecutive left-handed hitters in the lineup (with Choo preceding Hafner). Nevertheless, it stands to reason Choo may see more fastballs with both Martinez (.291, 14 home runs, 59 RBIs) and Hafner hitting behind him. An increase in fastballs would be beneficial to a fastball hitter like Choo.

Choo has hit fewer flyballs (32.1 percent) than he did in 2008 (36.1). This season's is more in line with his rates on batted balls from the minors. There has been no decrease in line drives, which have remained nearly constant from 2008 (22.8) to 2009 (22.6). Choo is simply hitting more groundballs this season (45.3) than he did in 2008 (41.1). Also, a higher percentage of Choo's flyballs are leaving the park in 2009 (17.3) than in the previous season (16.1).

Can Choo sustain his home run pace? There is evidence on both sides. It is certainly possible his power will diminish, since his flyball rate has dropped and is low for a power hitter anyway. Also, if you project Choo's home run total based strictly on his career at-bats per home run in the minors (42.3), you wouldn't think so. On the other hand, his slightly increased home run-to-flyball rate is similar to last year's number, which suggests that he may have been entering a power growth period last season, right around the time he turned 26.

Southpaw struggles?

Choo struggles against left-handed pitchers. In 2008, Choo - who throws and bats left-handed - performed significantly worse against lefties (.286/.345/.455) than against righties (.317/.413/.579). His splits continue to reveal a player who is simply a better batter versus righties (.309/.419/.482) than lefties (.253/.361/.465).

Choo has faced a higher percentage of left-handed pitchers this season (99 of 319 at-bats, 31.0 percent) than he did in 2008 (77 of 317 at-bats, 24.3 percent). The simple fact that he has faced more lefties partially explains the rise in his strikeout rate from 2008 (24.6) to 2009 (27.0). Against lefties, Choo has struck out 30 times in 99 at-bats (30.3 percent). Against righties, Choo has whiffed 56 times in 220 at-bats (25.5). These percentages mirror Choo's 2008 splits, when against lefties he fanned 26 times in 77 at-bats (33.8) and against righties he struck out 52 times in 240 at-bats (21.7).

It's worth noting that Choo has produced a similar slugging percentage against lefties (.465) and righties (.482) this year. However, last season he slugged .455 against southpaws and .579 against right-handers. In the bigs, he has a lifetime slugging percentage below .500, and he had never produced such a high rate in the minors in a season prior to last year's extended stay with Cleveland. He may be in the midst of a power breakout, but he hasn't victimized right-handers the way he did in 2008.

The role of luck

Choo's batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is a staggering .364, ranking in the top 10 in the majors. Ordinarily, a high number like that would alarm fantasy owners and Indians fans, suggesting as it does that Choo owes much of his respectable average (.292) and superb OBP (.401) to the whims of where the ball bounces.

In Choo's case, however, the high BABIP may be more a function of his hitting style and plate discipline than of dumb luck. For one thing, Choo's 2008 BABIP (.373) suggests that his 2009 BABIP may be a sustainable norm, rather than an aberrational high. His impressive line-drive rate further implies that the figure can be maintained. For another, Choo's terrific walk percentage (14.5) is a major factor behind his OBP.

Moreover, Choo's hitting style lends itself to a high BABIP. Choo strikes out a lot, but he does not chase pitches outside the strike zone: The percentage of pitches he swings at outside the strike zone is 21.3, placing him in the top quartile among major leaguers. When Choo swings at a pitch inside the strike zone, he tends to connect with it: His contact rate when swinging at pitches inside the strike zone is 85.5, also in the top quartile.

Combine these tendencies with Choo's ability to hit line drives and you get a player who gets good wood on the ball and hits it "where they ain't," to use the bygone slang of the legendary Willie Keeler. In fact, if you examine the BABIP leaders, many of them share Choo's style: They hit line drives, don't chase bad pitches and connect on pitches inside the strike zone.

Of the top 25 players in line-drive percentage at the All-Star break (Choo ranks 22nd), 16 of them boast a BABIP of at least .330. Likewise, you will also find players among the BABIP leaders with the combination of a low swing percentage outside the zone and a high zone contact rate, including Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim third baseman Chone Figgins (16.9, 92.8) and New York Mets outfielder Carlos Beltran (20.6, 92.2).

Fantasy baseball outlook

Choo's line-drive rates suggest he'll sustain his batting average. He is also 13-for-14 stealing bases, which fantasy owners have to consider a nice bonus. He was a speed threat early in his professional career but wasn't as efficient. He seems to be picking his spots much better.

While some evidence points to a power drop-off, nothing presages a drastic reduction. If anything, he may have a little room to grow given that his power is blossoming and he hasn't drilled righties quite the same way. If the lineup change results in a few more fastballs, and Choo hopes, it's possible. The question, really, is whether Choo will finish closer to 20 or 25 home runs.

Either way, it's not as if Choo will become a liability. He should continue to help fantasy teams in all categories, although owners can't automatically count on the stolen bases. Do not trade Choo based strictly on the belief that he will have a poor second half. His stellar post-break numbers in 2008 cannot be ignored. That said, it seems likely that Choo will continue to struggle against lefties. If you own him, consider benching him on those nights, especially if one of your backup hitters has a more promising matchup.

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Fan, at 07:25 on 08/07/09, says: Choo is a jewel of player. 5-tools...

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Ilan Mochari
Ilan Mochari has been a KFFL contributor since 2007.

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