Impact Analysis: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

July 17, 2009 @ 09:00:00

By David Wysocki
Edited by Tim Heaney

How easy it is to forget that Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw is just 21 years old. It is rare to see so much stock thrown into a player his age, but you simply haven't seen mitt-destroying southpaws like him reach the show so soon recently. His hype and ability have made him the obsession of keeper league die-hards and Dodgers' hopeful alike. With the demand ever increasing from both camps, can the sophomore ever truly live up to expectations?

Quick answer: He has already arrived.

After becoming the seventh overall selection in 2006 the Texan plowed through roughly three years of minor league baseball allowing a 2.49 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and putting up a ridiculous 276 strikeouts in only 220 1/3 frames, prompting the Dodgers to call up the 20-year-old to make his major league debut in 2008. Naturally, the lefty saw some ups and downs in his first 100-plus MLB innings, but he gave baseball fans something to get very excited about.

In the zone?

In his inaugural campaign Kershaw held his own with major league hitters predictably posting a strong strikeout rate of 8.36 strikeouts per nine innings and posting a moderate 4.26 ERA. This season he has improved on both numbers, dropping his ERA to 3.16 and raising his strikeout rate to 8.94 per nine. But like last season Kershaw faces the one obstacle holding him back from elite status: the notoriously elusive strike zone.

Like many live rookie arms, Kershaw is not quite ripe, which may be scary for hitters. The concern with him has always been his walk numbers, and since he's a strikeout pitcher, it has been hard for him to go deep into games. This season he is averaging less than 5 2/3 innings a start, and his longest outing is seven, accomplishing that mark on four separate occasions.

The Dodgers and Kershaw have been making some adjustments, but really the change is going to happen with maturity on the mound. In the minors Kershaw finished with a walk rate of 3.72 walks per nine innings, but he has posted walks rates of 4.35 and 5.33 in 2008 and 2009, respectively at the major league level. His 59 walks are worst in the bigs, and his first-pitch strikes are down from 54.7 percent to 53.4.

Despite this, his pitches in the strike zone have actually increased from 49.5 to 50.6 percent from last season, and his stuff is simply inducing weak contact from opposing hitters.

Worrisome signs

Kershaw's contact percentage is up from last season slightly from 79.0 percent to 79.3, yet the opposition can't seem to reach base hitting a paltry .199 with a pathetic .610 OPS. His 6.1 hits allowed per nine innings ranks tops in the league and his WHIP has fallen to 1.27 this season, incredible considering he issues more free passes than anyone else.

There's a chance Kershaw will get hit more as the season moves on simply because his opponents' average on balls in play (BABIP) sits at a low .257 while the major league average usually sits at .300 more or less. However, when hitters are making contact against him this season they aren't hitting for power. Kershaw's opponents' line-drive percentage has dropped from 20.7 to 18.3, and his infield flyball percentage has increased from 9.5 to 14.3 percent. His home runs allowed per nine innings are also down from 0.92 to 0.45, and his groundball rate is a decent 40.2 percent.

Kershaw needs to work on his efficiency. In 2009 he has averaged 17.9 pitches per inning, which puts him among the ranks of other sloppy hurlers like the New York Yankees' Joba Chamberlain, the Chicago Cubs' Rich Harden, the San Francisco Giants' Jonathan Sanchez and the Arizona Diamondbacks' Max Scherzer.

He's also allowing a ton more flyballs than last year: 31.3 to 41.5 this year. His homers-per-flyball rate is also a bit fluky at 5.0 percent. 

Pitch selection

Kershaw remains chiefly a two-pitch thrower (fastball and curveball), has added more of the slider and changeup this season while using his back-breaking curve selectively. He has thrown his slider 2.3 percent of the time versus 0.3 last year and the change 5.8 versus 5.3.

In addition, 11.4 percent of his pitches are not identifiable, versus 1.7 last season, meaning he's throwing a lot more offspeed stuff this season than even these numbers reflect. The new combination seems to have hitters off-balance as their contact percentage on pitches in the zone has decreased from 87.5 to 84.2 percent.

Maturity

Clearly if he's still green it is only on the periphery, and manager Joe Torre has taken notice. Citing Kershaw's rapid maturity at the big league level, Torre is allowing Kershaw to get himself out of jams more often this season. The new strategy has paid off as the clutch pitcher is allowing a .205 average and .315 slugging with men on base this year. However, he has allowed 29 walks compared to 34 K's with runners occupying the sacks.

Still, if you don't believe in Torre's conviction, one simply needs to look at Kershaw's splits to see a marked improvement in Kershaw's game as the season progresses. In every month this season Kershaw has dropped his ERA.

Table 1: Clayton Kershaw monthly ERAs, 2009

April	May	June	July
7.29	2.57	2.36	0.53

That 0.53 ERA for the month of July is not a typo. To say he has been unhittable this month doesn't do him justice as he has gone 2-0 with 16 strikeouts and just six hits allowed in 17 innings in three games against the Colorado Rockies, New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers; the latter two came on the road.

In fact, if Kershaw could pitch at home in every start he would likely be a front-runner for the Cy Young award. At home this year he boasts a 1.85 ERA, a 2.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a .567 opponents' OPS versus a 4.41-1.42-.665 mark on the road. Further, minus two starts at the pitchers' graveyard at Coors Field, where he has allowed 12 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings this season and a venue that typically kills curveballs, Kershaw is posting a 2.32 ERA on the season.

Fantasy baseball outlook

The scary thing about Kershaw this season is that he is dominating hitters before he has figured out his control problem. With his pure stuff and ever-enhancing secondary pitches his ceiling simply cannot be seen. At 21 years old Kershaw may be one of the most valuable keeper league pitchers out there, among the likes of the San Francisco Giants' Tim Lincecum.

Becoming more efficient may cut down on his walks but also may increase productive contact against him. He labors to accumulate K's, and as nice as those are for your fantasy team, his WHIP may rise as the season goes on.

Going forward you should expect a couple bad outings, as any 21-year-old would have, but overall improvement from him. He has gotten better through the season and has a terrific supporting cast with offense that ranks second in the National League in runs. At worst, with some kind of drop-off, he nets you solid strikeout numbers and wins.

Trading Kershaw may not seem like a solid idea, but you may able to snag an elite bat for him if you can convince your trading partner to overlook his control issues - plug the strikeouts. There are signs Kershaw could come down statistically, and this is probably the highest his value will be all season if you choose to explore a swap. 

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David Wysocki

David has been a KFFL writer since 2005. He is a San Diego native and a History and Geography student at California State University-Chico. He has a writing background and has appeared in, and helped produce, various local newsletters and magazines on sports and music. He also pitched for the No. 2 nationally ranked Rancho Buena Vista Longhorns his senior year of high school in 2002.

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