Impact Analysis: Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox

July 11, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Eric McClung
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

Few hitters began the 2009 campaign as hot as Boston Red Sox first baseman Kevin Youkilis. Although he is still hitting for power, Youkilis is beginning to stumble at the plate. He's striking out at an uncharacteristic rate, causing his once scorching batting average to cool off.

Have the changes to the Red Sox lineup contributed to the slump? Has Youk become too complacent? Can fantasy owners expect his batting average to rise back well above .300?

Corner to corner

Manager Terry Francona has shuffled his lineup several times this season due to injuries and performance. Youkilis has roughly the same number of games at cleanup (.373 in 118 at-bats) and in the No. 3 hole (.222 in 135 at-bats). However, over his career, Youkilis has more than 200 at-bats in the leadoff through sixth spots in the lineup. He owns a career batting average of over .280 in five of those six slots.

Where a player hits and who hits around him has an influence on how teams approach him, this is possibly a matter of happenstance. Youkilis spent most of his time through May in the fourth spot while then-struggling DH David Ortiz was hitting third; outfielder J.D. Drew was hitting fifth and performing for much of that time. Youkilis has been hitting in the three-hole from the end of May on. Outfielder Jason Bay spent most of that time at cleanup. In that time, he cooled off; Drew was merely adequate in the two-hole during stretch, but second baseman Dustin Pedroia hit quite well in that spot.

Third baseman Mike Lowell's nagging hip problem has led to Youkilis' shift across the diamond to play third base. In 79 at-bats, most coming in June, he is batting only .215 at the hot corner. Over his career, Youkilis is batting .285 as a third baseman in more than 530 at-bats. The timing of the slump and change on defense appears to be more coincidence rather than a potential cause of the slump.

Greek God of... BABIP?

A high batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was key to the quick start of Youkilis. He hit an unreal .395 in his first 21 games, thanks in large part to a .446 BABIP. Youkilis was on the disabled list for two weeks in May but registered a .452 BABIP in the 16 games he played; he hit .326 in that month. Starting in June, Youkilis began to slide, with more strikeouts (26) than hits (22). He hit at a .244 clip, and his BABIP dropped to .300, more in line with his career .337 BABIP.

As his BABIP moves closer to his standard, his batting average in turn moves closer to his career .289 clip. In fact, last year's BABIP (.347) probably played a part in Youkilis' career high .312 batting average. Youkilis has remained a consistent line-drive hitter - he has a rate of about 21 percent in each of the last three seasons. As the somewhat lucky BABIP normalizes, the line drives should ensure his batting average remains solid but several ticks off last year's pace.

Still the Greek God of Walks

Youk has seen first-pitch strikes a career-high 60.7 percent of the time, a possible contributor to his increase in strikeouts. Youkilis is known for seeing a lot of pitches during his at-bats, but his approach may have become too conservative. Perhaps that combined with his increased habit of starting off in the hole has come back to haunt him. On the season, Youkilis ranks first in pitches per plate appearance with 4.46, more in line with his rates from his sub-.300 seasons. During last season's breakout effort, he ranked 18th among qualifiers with a mark of 4.02.

In what is perhaps an adjustment by the opposition, Youkilis is seeing fewer fastballs as pitchers have begun to throw him more off-speed selections. Last season, Youkilis posted a fair .246 average against off-speed pitches, but this season is hitting an abysmal .178 against the soft stuff. It appears that pitchers have found a more effective way of dealing with Youk.

Expanding his zone could be the simplest answer to getting back on track. Last season Youkilis set career highs in several power departments partly because he was more aggressive. He swung at more pitches (career-high 42.4 percent). He swung at more pitches outside the zone (career-high 22.3 percent). He made contact on more pitches outside the zone (61.5 percent, the second-best rate of his career).

Youkilis' eye and run production have remained intact; he drew 19 walks in addition to hitting four home runs and driving in 14 runs in the month of June despite the sagging batting average. He's hitting .352 with runners in scoring position, something he has typically done well. On the season, his percentage of flyballs hit is 3.0 points above his career average, and his home run-to-flyball rate of 15.7 percent is similar to last year's career high of 14.9 percent. If he maintains the high percentage of flyballs hit, Youkilis can ensure last year's newfound power remains intact.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Last year Youk became more of a hacker, and he has been known as a grinder, but he has had extreme swings of luck this year. Many of his numbers are simply normalizing to his typical baseline and not a cause for alarm. Youk's value is probably at its lowest, and given the extreme swings, this could just be a bump in the road.

If you own Youk, he could draw considerable returns on the trading block because of his establishments in 2008. However, if someone tries to lowball you for him, it's advisable to wait this one out. Youk has eligibly at both corners and is a linchpin in one of the league's top offensive squads.

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Eric McClung

Eric McClung is a FSWA member and has been a KFFL contributor in addition to fantasy NASCAR consultant since 2008. His work has been published on several prominent NASCAR websites, and McClung is one of KFFL's featured fantasy NASCAR experts.

He can be followed on Twitter @ericmcclung

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